Diamondback Energy, Inc. Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.63 Intrinsic Value $175.57median of 6 methods · middle span $85-$253based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $185.51Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $51.9B Enterprise Value $64.1B Shares Outstanding 280.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Diamondback entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter oil production reached 525 MBO/d, total production exceeded one million BOE/d, adjusted free cash flow was $2.331 billion, and net debt declined to $12.304 billion. The company raised annual oil-production guidance to at least 522 MBO/d while holding expected capital expenditures near $3.9 billion. These results support the operational case, but material oil-price volatility, negative Permian gas realizations and prospective service-cost inflation constrain conviction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$205.00 Mean target$232.04 High · most bullish analyst$272.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $205.0020% Normalization of disrupted global oil supply, persistent weak Waha pricing or takeaway constraints, and higher casing, fuel or oilfield-service costs could reduce realized prices and compress free cash flow. Production or capital-efficiency slippage would slow deleveraging and reduce capacity for opportunistic repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $232.0456% Matches the consensus meanDiamondback broadly delivers at least 522 MBO/d of 2026 oil production while keeping annual capital expenditures near $3.9 billion. Free cash flow supports continued debt reduction, the $1.10 quarterly base dividend and selective repurchases, but commodity and basis volatility limit predictable upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $272.0024% Sustained supportive oil prices, delivery above the 522 MBO/d annual guidance floor, continued field-efficiency gains and successful enhanced-oil-recovery deployment could extend free-cash-flow strength. Additional Permian gas takeaway and prospective in-basin power demand could also improve gas monetization, while the enlarged repurchase authorization provides flexibility to compound per-share value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |