DexCom, Inc. Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.27 Intrinsic Value $138.67median of 6 methods · middle span $85-$176based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $86.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 61% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $32.5B Enterprise Value $32.8B Shares Outstanding 389.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dexcom entered the second half of 2026 with solid operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 13%, organic revenue increased 12%, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 25.1%. Management raised the midpoint of revenue guidance and increased its margin guidance, while CONNECT, the redesigned Stelo platform, and participation in the FDA TEMPO pilot support expansion beyond intensive-insulin users. Nevertheless, the August 28 closing price of $90.82 was close to the $92.59 52-week high, leaving less room for execution errors involving growth, reimbursement, competition, regulation, product quality, or manufacturing. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$79.00 Mean target$94.12 High · most bullish analyst$115.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $79.0022% Organic growth falls below 10% for multiple quarters or margin guidance is reduced as competition, reimbursement constraints, regulatory requirements, product-quality issues, or manufacturing execution weigh on adoption and costs. Multiple compression from a price near the 52-week high compounds the operating shortfall. Base CaseCentral scenario $94.1255% Matches the consensus meanDexcom delivers within FY2026 revenue guidance of $5.18-$5.25 billion and non-GAAP operating-margin guidance of 23.5%-24.0%, while subsequent growth remains near the long-range double-digit objective. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.0023% Dexcom sustains at least low-double-digit organic growth, expands CGM adoption among people with Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin, converts Stelo and AI-enabled services into meaningful demand, and progresses toward its 2030 margin objectives. Continued execution and margin expansion justify a premium growth valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |