Devon Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.60 Intrinsic Value $48.82median of 6 methods · middle span $43-$102based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $47.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $51.9B Enterprise Value $62.3B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Devon's enlarged post-Coterra platform offers substantial production scale, a Permian-focused capital program, an explicit shareholder-return framework and potentially material merger synergies. The offset is meaningful execution risk: management must integrate the businesses, deliver the announced synergy timetable, keep capital within guidance and manage commodity-price exposure while retiring debt. The Solitude investment and other controlled infrastructure can improve long-term Delaware Basin market access, but major benefits extend beyond the immediate forecast period. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$44.00 Mean target$59.58 High · most bullish analyst$68.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $44.0023% The bear case assumes weaker commodity realizations or operational disruption pushes production below guidance, capital exceeds the upper bound, or merger integration falls materially short of the announced synergy target. These outcomes would pressure free cash flow, debt-reduction capacity and shareholder distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario $59.5858% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes production and capital remain within 2026 guidance, the fixed dividend is maintained, and merger synergies are realized broadly on schedule, while commodity volatility and integration costs limit near-term upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $68.0019% The bull case assumes production remains within or above guidance, capital stays within the stated range, merger integration delivers the full $1.0 billion annual pretax synergy run-rate by year-end 2027, and Devon's expanded Gulf Coast and LNG-linked market access improves Delaware Basin gas realizations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |