Delta Air Lines Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Delta Air Lines Inc

DALNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryPassenger Airlines

Beta (adjusted)1.21

Intrinsic Value $125.14median of 6 methods · middle span $64-$200based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $84.13Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 49% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $55.3B

Enterprise Value $63.6B

Shares Outstanding 659M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date8 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend9 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Delta's June-quarter operating evidence supports a positive but risk-aware view. Adjusted revenue increased 13.9% and adjusted TRASM increased 12.4% despite approximately 1% capacity growth, while premium revenue rose 17% and diversified revenue represented 61% of adjusted revenue. Management reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EPS of $6.50-$7.50 and free cash flow of $3-$4 billion. The counterweight is substantial cost pressure: adjusted fuel price increased 75% year over year to $3.93 per gallon, CASM-Ex increased 6.8%, and adjusted operating margin declined to 8.8% from 13.3%. The latest issuer-displayed share price was $80.07 on August 28, 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$50.00

Mean target$105.52

High · most bullish analyst$125.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$50.0020%

Fuel remains materially above management's assumption, CASM-Ex improvement is delayed, and revenue growth fails to translate into margin recovery, causing adjusted EPS or free cash flow to fall below the reaffirmed FY2026 ranges.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$105.5255%

Matches the consensus mean

Delta delivers within its reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EPS and free-cash-flow ranges, September-quarter adjusted operating margin remains within 11%-13%, and strong premium and diversified revenue largely offset elevated fuel and non-fuel costs.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$125.0025%

Revenue and yield momentum persists through 2027, premium, loyalty and other diversified streams continue gaining mix, fuel moderates toward the September-quarter assumption, and execution produces results above the top of FY2026 guidance while leverage continues declining.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

June-quarter adjusted revenue increased 13.9% and adjusted TRASM increased 12.4% on approximately 1% capacity growth, indicating substantial yield-led momentum.
Premium revenue increased 17%, diversified revenue reached 61% of adjusted revenue, loyalty and related revenue increased 19%, and American Express remuneration increased 16% to $2.4 billion.
Management reaffirmed $3-$4 billion of FY2026 free cash flow and approximately 2x year-end gross leverage; adjusted net debt declined to $13.6 billion at June 30, 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Adjusted fuel price increased 75% year over year to $3.93 per gallon in the June quarter, and adjusted fuel expense increased 77%.
June-quarter CASM-Ex increased 6.8% year over year, remaining above Delta's long-term low-single-digit non-fuel unit-cost framework.
Adjusted operating margin declined to 8.8% from 13.3% and adjusted EPS declined to $1.56 from $2.12 despite strong revenue growth.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.