Dell Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $1,018.19median of 5 methods · middle span $287-$1,647based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $541.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 88% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+88%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $344.4B Enterprise Value $367.3B Shares Outstanding 644M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dell entered FY27 with exceptional AI-infrastructure momentum: Q1 revenue rose 88% to $43.8B, AI-optimized server revenue reached $16.1B, and management raised FY27 revenue guidance to $165B-$169B and AI-server revenue expectations to roughly $60B. The offset is execution and profitability risk as AI hardware becomes a much larger portion of the company. Q1 ISG operating margin was 10.5%, while the issuer identifies supplier concentration, component availability, competitive pressure, and AI-demand effects as material uncertainties. With Q2 guidance requiring $44B-$45B of revenue, continued shipment conversion and margin discipline are necessary to justify further upside; therefore, Hold is appropriate pending the next reported quarter. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$360.00 Mean target$502.91 High · most bullish analyst$700.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $330.0024% AI-server shipment conversion slows, FY27 revenue falls below the guidance range, and ISG operating margin declines below 10% because of pricing, component costs, unfavorable mix, or supply constraints. Lower earnings quality and reduced confidence in sustained AI-infrastructure growth drive material multiple compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $502.9155% Matches the consensus meanDell delivers within its $165B-$169B FY27 revenue range, produces approximately $60B of AI-server revenue, and keeps ISG operating margin near the Q1 level while CSG remains profitable. Bull CaseUpside scenario $600.0021% Dell exceeds the upper end of FY27 revenue guidance as AI-server demand remains stronger than expected, annual AI-server revenue surpasses roughly $60B, storage and traditional infrastructure participate in the expansion, and ISG margin remains at or above recent levels. Continued cash generation and capital returns support a higher equity value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |