Delek US Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $21.19median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $74.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 72% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.6B Enterprise Value $7.1B Shares Outstanding 60.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company is successfully executing its Enterprise Optimization Plan (EOP), raising its annual run-rate cash flow improvement target to at least $220 million, and has completed the critical Big Spring refinery turnaround on time and on budget. Furthermore, its 63.3% stake in Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) represents a significant source of stable, fee-based midstream cash flow and offers substantial sum-of-the-parts valuation upside if successfully unlocked or deconsolidated. However, these positive operational developments are offset by structural headwinds, including highly volatile refining crack spreads, elevated leverage on a consolidated basis, and substantial regulatory compliance costs under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), with projected 2026 RVO compliance costs reaching $750 million. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market monitors the execution of its sum-of-the-parts strategy and the stabilization of refining margins. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$63.17 High · most bullish analyst$81.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a significant slowdown in global economic growth, softening refined product demand and compressing refining margins. This is compounded by rising crude oil input costs, operational downtime at key facilities, and escalating RIN prices that drive RVO compliance costs well above the $750 million projection, severely straining the company's leveraged balance sheet. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that Delek US successfully captures improved refining margins during the summer driving season with its full system back online post-turnaround. The Enterprise Optimization Plan continues to deliver steady cost structures and margin enhancements, while Delek Logistics Partners achieves its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million. Crack spreads remain near historical mid-cycle averages, and RFS compliance costs are managed within expected parameters. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |