Deere & Co Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryAgricultural & Farm Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $385.01median of 6 methods · middle span $281-$505based on filings through 2 Aug 2026 Market Price $667.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $179.9B Enterprise Value $188.1B Shares Outstanding 270.6M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Deere's third-quarter evidence supports management's view that fiscal 2026 may be the agricultural-equipment cycle trough: quarterly net sales and revenues increased 5%, net income increased 7%, and management raised the fiscal-year net-income range to $4.75-$5.00 billion. Diversification is working, with Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry offsetting continued Production & Precision Agriculture weakness. However, the August 28 closing price of $630.33 already appears to capitalize a meaningful recovery while Deere still expects large-agriculture markets in the U.S./Canada and South America to contract 15%-20%. The risk/reward is therefore balanced rather than clearly favorable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$500.00 Mean target$646.75 High · most bullish analyst$812.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $480.0025% The large-agriculture downturn lasts beyond fiscal 2026, South American and European softness intensifies, Production & Precision Agriculture sales and margins fall below current expectations, or tariffs and production costs overwhelm price realization. In that outcome, earnings expectations and the recovery premium embedded in the share price would contract. Base CaseCentral scenario $646.7555% Matches the consensus meanFiscal 2026 finishes within the $4.75-$5.00 billion net-income range, Production & Precision Agriculture stabilizes before recovering gradually, and the stronger Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry businesses cushion the cycle. Bull CaseUpside scenario $800.0020% Management's cycle-bottom assessment proves correct, early-order strength converts into a Production & Precision Agriculture recovery, technology adoption accelerates, and Small Agriculture & Turf plus Construction & Forestry retain much of their improved profitability. This would support a materially higher valuation than the August 28 market price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |