Deep Fission Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Deep Fission Inc

FISNNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $5.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $305.1M

Shares Outstanding 64.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Deep Fission Inc (NASDAQ: FISN) represents a highly innovative, asymmetric play on the rapidly growing demand for clean, carbon-free baseload power driven by AI hyperscale data centers and heavy industry. By deploying established pressurized water reactor (PWR) technology one mile underground in deep boreholes, Deep Fission's proprietary Gravity Reactor eliminates the need for expensive surface containment structures and complex safety systems. This radically simplified design enables rapid 6-month build times and significantly lower capital costs ($2.5–$3B/GW) compared to traditional surface nuclear plants. Backed by a robust 18.5 GW non-binding customer pipeline, strategic partnerships, and selection in the U.S. Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program, the company is well-positioned to commercialize its technology. Following its June 2026 IPO, the stock's recent pullback to ~$11 provides an attractive entry point for patient, long-term investors looking to capitalize on a major structural shift in clean energy infrastructure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.00

Mean target$19.00

High · most bullish analyst$20.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.5020%

Technical or geological complications during the drilling of the G-2 prototype well in Kansas lead to cost overruns and timeline delays. Regulatory hurdles with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment or the NRC slow down progress, extending the cash burn period. If the company is forced to raise additional equity at a depressed valuation to fund operations, substantial shareholder dilution occurs, keeping the stock near its post-IPO lows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$19.0050%

Matches the consensus mean

Deep Fission executes its phased commercialization plan in line with expectations, commencing G-2 prototype drilling in Q3 2026 and G-3 commercial drilling by late 2026. The company utilizes its $95 million pro forma cash cushion to fund the remaining $29 million G-2 capex and ongoing $3 million monthly operating burn without requiring immediate dilutive equity raises. Wall Street coverage initiates positively following the quiet period expiration on July 28, 2026, helping the stock re-rate toward its consensus fair value.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$20.0030%

Rapid execution of the G-2 prototype and G-3 commercial drilling programs in Parsons, Kansas, validates the borehole deployment model ahead of schedule. Deep Fission successfully converts a meaningful portion of its 18.5 GW non-binding pipeline into binding, long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with hyperscale data center operators at premium pricing (e.g., $130/MWh). Regulatory approvals from the NRC and state authorities proceed smoothly, and the company secures non-dilutive project debt financing, driving the stock toward the high-end analyst target.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Radically simplified Gravity Reactor design utilizing proven PWR technology and standard low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel, avoiding advanced fuel supply chain risks.
Substantial cost advantages ($2.5–$3B/GW) and rapid 6-month build times by leveraging the Earth's deep subsurface as natural containment.
Strong liquidity position with approximately $95 million in pro forma cash against zero debt, providing a solid runway to complete the G-2 prototype.
Massive addressable market with a non-binding customer pipeline of up to 18.5 GW, driven by urgent clean energy demands from AI data centers and utilities.
Selection in the U.S. Department of Energy's Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program, providing regulatory and operational credibility.

Key Investment Risks

Early-stage pre-revenue company with a limited operating history and a multi-year path to full commercialization.
High execution risk associated with drilling deep boreholes and validating end-to-end installation workflows under real-world conditions.
Potential for future equity dilution if commercialization timelines slip and additional capital is required beyond the current cash runway.
Regulatory and licensing uncertainties inherent in deploying novel nuclear reactor configurations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the G-2 prototype to achieve technical milestones or validate the borehole installation workflow.
Significant delays or outright denial of necessary regulatory permits from the NRC or state environmental agencies.
Severe cost overruns that deplete the company's $95 million cash runway prematurely, forcing highly dilutive financing rounds.
Cancellation or material reduction of the non-binding customer pipeline and strategic partnerships.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.