Deckers Outdoor Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryFootwear & Accessories Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $141.43median of 6 methods · middle span $119-$226based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $79.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 78% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+78%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.8B Enterprise Value $9.6B Shares Outstanding 134.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Deckers entered fiscal 2027 with continued growth at HOKA and UGG, positive direct-to-consumer and international momentum, and an increased diluted-EPS outlook. Management also retained its fiscal 2027 sales range and longer-term high-single-digit annual sales-growth framework. The neutral recommendation reflects execution risk around tariffs, discretionary demand and supply-chain conditions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$85.00 Mean target$122.81 High · most bullish analyst$184.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $85.0020% Weaker discretionary demand, adverse trade-policy or tariff developments, foreign-exchange volatility, or supply-chain disruption causes sales to fall below guidance and prevents expected gross-margin and EPS delivery. Base CaseCentral scenario $122.8157% Matches the consensus meanDeckers delivers fiscal 2027 sales within management's $5.86-$5.91 billion range, HOKA and UGG perform near their respective growth objectives, gross margin is slightly better than 56.5%, and diluted EPS falls within $7.35-$7.50. Bull CaseUpside scenario $184.0023% HOKA sustains at least low-double-digit growth, UGG exceeds its mid-single-digit objective, and direct-to-consumer and international expansion support gross margin above the updated fiscal 2027 outlook. Under this case, diluted EPS reaches or exceeds the upper end of management's $7.35-$7.50 range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |