DaVita Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $448.93median of 5 methods · middle span $136-$966based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $176.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 155% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+155%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.3B Enterprise Value $21.4B Shares Outstanding 64.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary DaVita entered the second half of 2026 with stronger operating momentum: second-quarter operating income reached USD 579 million, adjusted diluted EPS was USD 4.02, trailing-12-month free cash flow was USD 1.308 billion, and management maintained FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of USD 14.10-15.20. Pricing and cost execution remain favorable, while integrated kidney care produced USD 40 million of second-quarter operating income. The counterweights are modest 0.3% normalized non-acquired treatment growth, a 3.37x leverage ratio, substantial sensitivity to commercial-payor mix and government reimbursement, and continuing technology, labor and supply-chain exposure. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$165.00 Mean target$218.43 High · most bullish analyst$270.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $165.0020% Organic treatment growth turns negative, reimbursement or commercial-payor mix weakens, labor and supply costs compress unit economics, and integrated-care results become volatile. Free cash flow falls below management's guidance floor while leverage limits capital-return flexibility. Applying the bear scenario's capitalization assumption to the USD 14.10 guidance low produces the stated target. Base CaseCentral scenario $218.4355% Matches the consensus meanDaVita delivers near the midpoint of FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance, with modestly positive treatment growth, broadly stable per-treatment economics, continued but uneven integrated-care profitability and leverage remaining near current levels. Applying the base scenario's capitalization assumption to the USD 14.65 guidance midpoint produces the stated target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $270.0025% DaVita reaches the high end of FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance as reimbursement gains continue to exceed patient-care cost growth, organic treatment growth remains positive, integrated kidney care sustains profitability, and free cash flow supports additional share reduction. Applying the bull scenario's capitalization assumption to the USD 15.20 guidance high produces the stated target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |