Datadog, Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value $76.52median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$227based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $276.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 72% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $99.3B Enterprise Value $99.8B Shares Outstanding 370.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Datadog entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 36% year over year, customers generating at least $100,000 of ARR increased 23%, and full-year revenue guidance implied approximately 30% growth. More than 100 capabilities launched at DASH 2026 and the Adaptive ML acquisition strengthen the AI-observability and autonomous-operations opportunity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$158.00 Mean target$285.18 High · most bullish analyst$330.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $158.0017% Revenue growth falls below 20% as cloud optimization, competition, weaker customer expansion, or slower monetization of AI capabilities outweigh product innovation. Dependence on renewals and additional purchases from existing customers, together with security, availability, and technology-transition risks, would weaken the investment case. Base CaseCentral scenario $285.1858% Matches the consensus meanGrowth moderates from the second quarter's 36% rate but remains in the high-20% range, broadly consistent with management's approximately 30% full-year outlook. Large-customer growth remains healthy, and AI, security, and observability additions deepen platform adoption, while competition and demanding comparisons limit upside certainty. Bull CaseUpside scenario $330.0025% Revenue growth remains near or above 30% as AI-native workloads, autonomous operations, security products, and continued platform consolidation drive both new-customer acquisition and expansion. The large-customer cohort continues growing above 20%, while Datadog converts its rapid product cadence and Adaptive ML capabilities into broader enterprise adoption. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |