Dare Bioscience Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)1.05 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $0.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $16.7M Enterprise Value $4.1M Shares Outstanding 17.1M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Daré Bioscience is transitioning from a clinical-stage R&D company to a commercial-stage women's health biotech. The company is executing a dual-path commercial model that leverages Section 503B compounding for immediate market access alongside traditional FDA approval pathways. With the launch of Flora Sync LF5 in June 2026 and DARE to PLAY in Q3 2026, Daré is poised to record its first direct product revenues. While going-concern risks remain due to a tight working capital position, the company's heavy reliance on non-dilutive grant funding (such as ARPA-H and the Gates Foundation) significantly offsets its R&D cash burn, presenting a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile with substantial upside potential. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.00 Mean target$8.33 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.5020% Commercial launches face distribution and state licensing delays, resulting in negligible product revenues in 2026. The company is forced to execute highly dilutive equity raises to fund operations, and clinical timelines for Ovaprene or DARE-HPV slip into late 2027 or beyond. Base CaseCentral scenario $9.6755% Flora Sync LF5 and DARE to PLAY launch successfully in Summer 2026, establishing initial product revenue streams. Ovaprene Phase III enrollment completes in late 2026 with a primary endpoint readout in 2027. The company manages its going-concern risk through a combination of modest product revenues, strategic collaborations, and controlled equity raises under its Regulation A program. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0025% Rapid commercial adoption of DARE to PLAY and Flora Sync LF5 drives strong early product revenues, while the Phase III Ovaprene trial completes enrollment ahead of schedule in late 2026, setting up a positive topline data readout in 2027. Non-dilutive funding continues to cover the majority of R&D expenses, extending the cash runway without diluting equity holders. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |