Darden Restaurants Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $190.31median of 6 methods · middle span $174-$305based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $197.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $22.4B Enterprise Value $23.8B Shares Outstanding 116.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date24 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Darden enters fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: fiscal 2026 sales rose 9.4%, annual same-restaurant sales increased 4.5%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 11.4%. Management nevertheless guides to slower same-restaurant sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5% while undertaking 75 to 80 openings, approximately $875 million of capital spending, and the remaining Bahama Breeze conversions. A Hold recommendation therefore reflects positive fundamentals offset by unquantified valuation risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$156.00 Mean target$228.54 High · most bullish analyst$276.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $156.0020% Traffic or consumer weakness pushes same-restaurant sales below 2.5%, inflation exceeds the 3.0% assumption, and the accelerated opening and conversion program creates execution or cost pressure. Sales or diluted EPS consequently falls below management's lower guidance bounds. Base CaseCentral scenario $228.5455% Matches the consensus meanResults remain within management's fiscal 2027 ranges: sales of $13.60 billion to $13.75 billion, same-restaurant sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%, diluted EPS of $11.10 to $11.35, and 75 to 80 openings. Brand diversification and continued unit growth offset moderation from fiscal 2026's 4.5% same-restaurant sales increase. Bull CaseUpside scenario $276.0025% Darden reaches the upper end of fiscal 2027 guidance, including approximately $13.75 billion of sales, 3.5% same-restaurant sales growth, $11.35 of diluted EPS from continuing operations, and $2.29 billion of EBITDA. LongHorn remains a major growth driver, new-unit execution is timely, and inflation is contained near or below the planning assumption. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |