Danaos Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Danaos Corp

DACNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryMarine Shipping

Beta (adjusted)0.91

Intrinsic Value $154.79median of 6 methods · middle span $74-$459based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $161.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.9B

Enterprise Value $3.1B

Shares Outstanding 18.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC) presents a highly compelling, low-risk investment opportunity within the cyclical maritime shipping sector. The company has successfully insulated its near-to-medium term earnings from market volatility by securing a massive $4.1 billion contracted revenue backlog with an average charter duration of 4.2 years. This backlog provides 100% operating day coverage for the remainder of 2026, 88% for 2027, and 65% for 2028. Furthermore, Danaos boasts an exceptionally strong balance sheet with a Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of just 0.2x, and 67 out of its 86 vessels are completely unencumbered and debt-free. This financial strength allows the company to opportunistically expand its fleet, return capital to shareholders via a stable $0.90 quarterly dividend, and execute share buybacks, while trading at a highly attractive valuation multiple relative to its historical averages and peers.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$155.00

Mean target$164.50

High · most bullish analyst$174.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$155.0020%

A rapid resolution of Middle East geopolitical tensions occurs alongside a global economic slowdown, leading to a sharp drop in container shipping demand. An oversupply of global vessel capacity materializes as industry-wide newbuildings are delivered. While Danaos's contracted backlog protects its near-term cash flows, the market penalizes shipping stocks, and the company faces lower charter rates on re-contracting vessels in 2028 and beyond.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$164.5050%

Matches the consensus mean

Charter rates remain stable near current levels, supported by steady global trade demand and disciplined capacity management by liner companies. Danaos executes its fleet expansion smoothly, taking delivery of its scheduled newbuildings backed by multi-year charters. The company maintains its $3.60 annualized dividend, yielding approximately 2.8%, and continues to generate strong free cash flows, keeping leverage minimal.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$174.0030%

Geopolitical disruptions in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden persist throughout 2026 and 2027, forcing continued vessel diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. This structurally reduces global shipping capacity, keeping charter rates elevated. Danaos successfully charters its remaining uncontracted newbuildings at premium rates, driving substantial upside to consensus earnings. The company accelerates its share buyback program using its $65 million remaining authorization, and the market re-rates the stock toward its historical book value.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Exceptional cash flow visibility with a $4.1 billion contracted revenue backlog and 100% charter coverage for the remainder of 2026.
Industry-leading balance sheet strength with a Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.2x and 67 unencumbered, debt-free vessels.
Disciplined capital allocation, returning significant capital to shareholders through a $0.90 quarterly dividend and an active share repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Highly cyclical nature of the maritime shipping industry, which is sensitive to global economic growth and trade volumes.
Risk of industry-wide vessel oversupply as a large volume of global containership newbuildings are delivered over the next few years.
Geopolitical normalization, particularly in the Red Sea, which could quickly increase active vessel supply and depress spot charter rates.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material default or financial distress of a major liner counterparty (e.g., MSC, HMM, Yang Ming, Hapag Lloyd) leading to charter contract renegotiations.
A prolonged global recession that severely curtails consumer demand and international trade volumes, causing widespread charter cancellations.
Significant delays or cost overruns in the delivery of the company's 27 containerships on order.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.