Dana Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Dana Inc

DANNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.67

Intrinsic Value $13.85median of 5 methods · middle span $12-$48based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $27.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 50% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3B

Enterprise Value $4B

Shares Outstanding 116.5M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Dana Inc is undergoing a transformative structural shift, highlighted by its definitive agreement to combine with Eaton's Mobility business in a $5.1 billion Reverse Morris Trust transaction. This merger accelerates Dana's long-term strategic goals, immediately scaling pro forma sales to approximately $11 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $1.7 billion (15% margin) on a synergized 2026 basis. Furthermore, the company's standalone operational execution is robust, as evidenced by a 400 basis point year-over-year expansion in Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin to 9.2%, driven by aggressive cost-saving initiatives and a high-margin backlog. With net leverage projected to remain highly manageable at approximately 1.2x post-merger, Dana represents a compelling value-creation story backed by significant synergy potential and disciplined capital allocation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$28.00

Mean target$37.43

High · most bullish analyst$43.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$28.0020%

Integration friction or delayed regulatory approvals slow down the Eaton Mobility merger, postponing the realization of the $250 million synergy target. Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, commodity price volatility, and prolonged softness in the commercial vehicle and medium-duty markets compress margins. Elevated capital expenditures for new program launches and working capital inefficiencies restrict free cash flow conversion, limiting debt reduction and share repurchases.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$37.4350%

Matches the consensus mean

Dana successfully completes the Eaton Mobility merger, establishing a premier global powertrain leader with combined sales of $11 billion and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion. Standalone FY 2026 guidance is achieved with sales of approximately $7.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $800 million. Cost-saving programs deliver the targeted $65 million for 2026, and the company makes steady progress toward its revised 2030 targets of $14 to $15 billion in sales and 18% adjusted EBITDA margins.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$43.0030%

The integration of Eaton's Mobility business proceeds ahead of schedule, unlocking the targeted $250 million in annual run-rate synergies earlier than the 24-month target. Strong cyclical recovery in the commercial and light vehicle markets, combined with rapid adoption of high-margin EV and clean-energy propulsion systems, drives pro forma EBITDA margins toward the upper end of the revised 2030 target of 18%. Aggressive share buybacks, supported by robust free cash flow generation, significantly boost EPS.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Transformational merger with Eaton's Mobility business creates a global powertrain leader with immediate scale ($11 billion pro forma sales) and a robust financial profile.
Strong operational execution and cost-discipline programs, delivering $35 million in cost savings in Q1 2026 alone and driving significant margin expansion.
Robust backlog and program visibility, highlighted by major new business wins such as the Stellantis RAM Dakota program.
Disciplined capital allocation, including a front-end loaded share buyback program returning $125 million to shareholders in Q1 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Execution and integration risks associated with combining operations and achieving the targeted $250 million in synergies from the Eaton Mobility transaction.
Cyclical exposure to global automotive and commercial vehicle production volumes, which are currently experiencing flat to soft demand.
Short-term working capital and cash flow volatility, as seen in the Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow usage of $195 million.
Inability to fully offset commodity price volatility and inflationary pressures through customer pricing indexation.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to close or significant delay in the Eaton Mobility merger due to regulatory or shareholder hurdles.
A material downward revision of the $250 million synergy target or integration costs significantly exceeding expectations.
EBITDA margins falling below 8% due to unmitigated cost inflation or severe volume declines in key vehicle platforms.
Net leverage rising above 2.0x, threatening the company's credit rating and financial flexibility.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.