D-Wave Quantum Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

D-Wave Quantum Inc

QBTSNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.78

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $16.56Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $6.3B

Enterprise Value $6B

Shares Outstanding 396M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

D-Wave Quantum Inc. is successfully transitioning from a pure-physics research startup into a commercial enterprise. This shift is highlighted by its unique dual-platform strategy (offering both quantum annealing and gate-model systems), record-setting bookings of $33.4 million in Q1 2026, and an expanded commercial partnership with AT&T for real-world network optimization. While near-term revenue remains lumpy and the company continues to operate at a net loss, its substantial cash position of $588.4 million and strong government backing (including a $100 million federal grant) provide a robust operational runway to achieve commercial quantum utility.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$22.00

Mean target$35.25

High · most bullish analyst$43.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$22.0020%

Lumpy hardware sales and complex installation timelines lead to delayed revenue recognition. High R&D expenses and integration costs from the Quantum Circuits acquisition accelerate cash burn, while intense competition from tech giants (IBM, Google) and trapped-ion players (IonQ) limits market share expansion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$35.2555%

Matches the consensus mean

D-Wave steadily delivers on its 2026 system sales pipeline (delivering at least 2 systems) and maintains its leadership in quantum annealing while progressing toward its 2028 gate-model milestones. Revenue grows in line with consensus estimates to ~$43 million in FY 2026 and ~$86 million in FY 2027.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$43.0025%

Rapid conversion of the record $42.4 million backlog into recognized revenue, combined with accelerated enterprise adoption of annealing systems (following AT&T's 240x speedup validation) and successful execution of the Quantum Circuits gate-model roadmap, drives triple-digit revenue growth and early profitability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Only dual-platform quantum computing company developing both annealing and gate-model systems.
Record Q1 2026 bookings of $33.4 million, representing a 1,994% year-over-year increase.
Strong liquidity with $588.4 million in cash and marketable securities to fund the path to profitability.
Validated commercial utility with major enterprise clients like AT&T and academic institutions like Florida Atlantic University.
Substantial government support, including a $100 million federal grant under a $2 billion quantum initiative.

Key Investment Risks

Highly lumpy and volatile quarterly revenue recognition tied to physical system installations.
Deeply unprofitable on a GAAP basis with significant ongoing adjusted EBITDA losses.
Intense competition from well-capitalized technology giants and alternative quantum architectures (e.g., trapped-ion, photonics).
Execution risk associated with integrating Quantum Circuits Inc. and delivering on the multi-year gate-model roadmap.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Significant delays or cancellations in the delivery of the FAU system or Fortune 100 QCaaS contract.
Quarterly cash burn accelerating beyond expectations, reducing the runway to under 2 years.
A major competitor achieving fault-tolerant quantum advantage significantly ahead of D-Wave's roadmap.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.