CytomX Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.75 Intrinsic Value $1.10median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $2.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 58% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-58%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $573.1M Enterprise Value $558.7M Shares Outstanding 227.2M diluted Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CytomX Therapeutics is a pioneer in conditionally activated, masked PROBODY therapeutics designed to localize drug activity to the tumor microenvironment, thereby widening the therapeutic window for highly potent payloads. The company's lead asset, Varseta-M (CX-2051), has demonstrated highly promising clinical efficacy in late-line colorectal cancer (CRC) with confirmed objective response rates up to 32% and median progression-free survival of ~7.1 months. Following a massive $234 million net equity raise in March 2026, CytomX has eliminated near-term funding risks, extending its cash runway into at least the second half of 2028. While the wind-down of legacy collaboration obligations has caused a temporary drop in quarterly revenues, the company's robust platform, deep pipeline, and active partnerships with Regeneron, Amgen, and Moderna position it as a highly attractive, well-capitalized biotech with multiple near-term clinical catalysts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$12.25 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.0020% Varseta-M's clinical development is delayed due to safety concerns, specifically severe Grade 3 diarrhea or other toxicities that limit its therapeutic window in late-line CRC. FDA alignment takes longer than expected, pushing the registrational trial past 2027. CX-801 combination data fails to show meaningful efficacy over pembrolizumab monotherapy, leading to platform skepticism and downward pressure on the stock. Base CaseCentral scenario $12.0050% Varseta-M continues its clinical progression in CRC, with dose optimization data in 2H 2026 confirming a viable monotherapy dose. The company aligns with the FDA on a registrational path by early 2027. CX-801 combination data shows acceptable safety and early efficacy signals. Cash runway remains solid into 2028, and the stock moves toward the consensus analyst target as clinical milestones are met. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.0030% Varseta-M achieves rapid FDA alignment and enters a registrational study in late-line CRC by H1 2027 with manageable toxicity (Grade 3 diarrhea remains low due to optimized dosing). CX-801 combination data with KEYTRUDA in advanced melanoma (expected late 2026) shows synergistic efficacy, triggering milestone payments and expanding the PROBODY platform's validation. Strategic partnerships are expanded, bringing in upfront non-dilutive cash. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |