Cytokinetics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $65.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $9.1B Enterprise Value $9.1B Shares Outstanding 128.8M diluted Next Earnings Date14 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cytokinetics has transitioned into commercial execution with MYQORZO and reported $25.334 million of second-quarter 2026 net product revenue after $4.789 million in the initial partial quarter. The investment case also gained an important potential label-expansion driver when ACACIA-HCM met both primary endpoints in symptomatic non-obstructive HCM. This is balanced by early-launch uncertainty, required REMS monitoring, the boxed heart-failure warning, and ACACIA-HCM safety findings that included LVEF below 50% in 10.5% of aficamten-treated patients. A Hold assessment is therefore appropriate pending additional launch data and FDA acceptance and review of the planned supplemental NDA. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$85.00 Mean target$109.90 High · most bullish analyst$146.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $85.0018% MYQORZO launch growth stalls as specialist onboarding, echocardiographic monitoring, REMS administration, reimbursement, or safety concerns constrain uptake. A delay to the Q4 2026 supplemental NDA or heightened FDA concern regarding systolic-dysfunction and heart-failure events would reduce the probability and timing of non-obstructive HCM expansion. Base CaseCentral scenario $109.9057% Matches the consensus meanMYQORZO revenue grows sequentially but remains subject to the normal variability of a specialty-drug launch, while Cytokinetics submits the non-obstructive HCM supplemental NDA during Q4 2026. The positive ACACIA-HCM efficacy package supports review, but the boxed warning, REMS requirements, and observed LVEF and heart-failure events temper adoption and regulatory certainty. Bull CaseUpside scenario $146.0025% MYQORZO adoption accelerates from the second-quarter launch baseline, paid prescriptions remain above 80%, international access broadens, and the planned non-obstructive HCM supplemental NDA is submitted on schedule and advances without a material regulatory setback. ACACIA-HCM efficacy across symptoms, exercise performance, functional class, biomarkers, and broader global-response measures supports meaningful expansion of the addressable HCM population. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |