CVS Health Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Services Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $78.69median of 6 methods · middle span $71-$132based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $85.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $109B Enterprise Value $161.3B Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend23 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CVS Health's operating recovery strengthened through the second quarter of 2026: adjusted EPS increased, Health Care Benefits profitability improved materially, the medical benefit ratio declined, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS and operating-cash-flow guidance. The evidence supports a constructive operating view, but elevated medical-cost trends, PBM pricing concessions, pharmacy reimbursement pressure, and the recent Health Care Delivery impairment warrant caution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$103.00 Mean target$116.08 High · most bullish analyst$148.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $103.0019% Medical-cost trends reaccelerate, the Health Care Benefits medical benefit ratio reverses toward prior-year levels, and PBM client pricing, retail reimbursement pressure, or further Health Care Delivery execution problems force a reduction in guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $116.0858% Matches the consensus meanThe most likely outcome is continued but uneven recovery: CVS delivers approximately within its raised 2026 guidance, Aetna retains much of the first-half underwriting improvement, and pharmacy operations remain profitable despite pricing and reimbursement pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $148.0023% Health Care Benefits sustains its margin recovery, CVS delivers within or above its raised 2026 guidance, and Caremark, retail pharmacy, and the planned consumer-engagement platform support the company's stated mid-teens adjusted-EPS growth ambition through 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |