CVR Partners LP Dossier - Source-backed chat

CVR Partners LP

UANNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryAgricultural Inputs

Beta (adjusted)0.45

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $124.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.3B

Enterprise Value $1.7B

Shares Outstanding 10.6M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CVR Partners, LP (NYSE: UAN) presents a compelling tactical buy opportunity for income-focused investors, supported by robust operational execution and favorable structural tailwinds in the global nitrogen fertilizer market. The partnership achieved an exceptional 103% ammonia utilization rate in Q1 2026, capitalizing on tight global inventories and geopolitical supply disruptions that drove average realized gate prices up 34% YoY for UAN and 24% YoY for ammonia. With a variable distribution model that declared a $4.00 per unit payout for Q1 2026, UAN offers a highly attractive double-digit yield. Furthermore, strategic initiatives—such as the nitrous oxide abatement installations and the evaluation of dual-feedstock flexibility at Coffeyville—enhance its long-term competitive positioning and ESG profile.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$95.00

A sharp decline in global agricultural commodity prices reduces farmer demand and fertilizer affordability, while global nitrogen supply capacity increases. Unplanned operational downtime or cost overruns during the August 2026 East Dubuque turnaround compress margins. Natural gas feedstock costs spike, narrowing the spread that drives profitability and forcing a significant reduction in variable quarterly distributions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$125.00

Nitrogen fertilizer markets remain supportive but volatile, with ammonia utilization averaging 95% to 100% in line with management guidance. Henry Hub natural gas prices stabilize around $4.00/mmBtu. The East Dubuque turnaround is completed on schedule in Q3 2026 within the projected $35M-$45M maintenance budget. Distributions remain variable but robust, supported by steady domestic demand and solid operating cash flows.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$140.00

Sustained geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to restrict global nitrogen exports, keeping domestic fertilizer prices elevated. High crop planting demand and favorable farmer economics drive strong volumes, while natural gas costs remain moderate. CVR Partners successfully executes its East Dubuque turnaround in August 2026, achieving the projected 5% capacity expansion and returning both plants to industry-leading utilization rates above 100%, leading to annualized distributions exceeding $16.00 per unit.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

High operational efficiency with Q1 2026 ammonia utilization rate reaching 103%, demonstrating strong plant reliability.
Strong pricing power, with Q1 2026 average realized gate prices surging to $687/ton for ammonia and $343/ton for UAN.
Substantial cash distribution potential under its variable distribution MLP structure, highlighted by the $4.00/unit Q1 2026 payout.
Strategic dual-feedstock flexibility potential at the Coffeyville facility, allowing optimization between pet coke and natural gas feedstocks.

Key Investment Risks

High commodity price sensitivity, as earnings and distributions are entirely dependent on volatile nitrogen fertilizer and natural gas market prices.
Operational concentration risk with only two manufacturing facilities (Coffeyville and East Dubuque), making the partnership highly vulnerable to unplanned outages.
Turnaround execution risk associated with the major planned turnaround at the East Dubuque facility scheduled for August 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A prolonged collapse in global nitrogen fertilizer prices below historical averages.
Severe operational disruptions or extended unplanned downtime at either the Coffeyville or East Dubuque plants.
A material increase in natural gas feedstock costs without a corresponding rise in fertilizer selling prices, severely compressing margins.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.