CVR Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $22.71median of 5 methods · middle span $4-$25based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $54.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 58% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-58%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.5B Enterprise Value $6.4B Shares Outstanding 100.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CVR Energy presents a complex investment profile characterized by strong operational execution but significant financial volatility. Operationally, the company is running flat out with 97% crude utilization and 103% ammonia plant utilization in Q1 2026. However, GAAP earnings are heavily distorted by unrealized mark-to-market derivative losses ($158 million in Q1 2026) and elevated Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) compliance costs. While management has successfully de-risked the medium-term outlook by locking in $447 million of value via NYMEX crack spread swaps through 2027 and pushed out debt maturities via a $1.0 billion refinancing, the high concentration of ownership by Carl Icahn (71%) and the inherent cyclicality of refining margins warrant a cautious Hold stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$31.00 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.00 A sharp economic slowdown depresses refined product demand, compressing crack spreads below mid-cycle levels. Simultaneously, RIN prices rise further, expanding the RFS liability beyond the current $204 million, which pressures liquidity and forces another suspension of the quarterly dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $31.00 Matches the consensus meanRefining margins remain volatile but stable sequentially, with petroleum throughput averaging 200,000 to 215,000 bpd. The company continues to generate sufficient operating cash flow to cover its $200 million to $240 million annual capex and maintain the $0.10 quarterly dividend, while making gradual progress on deleveraging. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.00 Refining margins recover strongly driven by geopolitical disruptions and tight global supply, allowing CVR Energy to capture premium pricing. The locked-in $447 million from crack spread swaps is realized as high cash flows, enabling rapid deleveraging toward the $1.0 billion gross debt target and supporting an increase in the newly reinstated quarterly dividend beyond $0.10 per share. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |