Curtiss-Wright Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $356.15median of 6 methods · middle span $296-$643based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $544.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.1B Enterprise Value $20.7B Shares Outstanding 36.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Curtiss-Wright entered the second half of 2026 with improving profitability, a larger backlog and raised full-year guidance. Q2 adjusted operating income increased 12%, adjusted margin expanded 110 basis points to 19.4%, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 15%. Backlog reached USD 4.5 billion, while August capital-return actions increased expected 2026 repurchases to USD 260 million. These strengths support continued compounding, but Defense Electronics sales declined 3% in Q2 and the issuer-provided share quote already reflects substantial market optimism. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$700.00 Mean target$806.50 High · most bullish analyst$870.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $700.0015% The downside case would emerge if book-to-bill falls below 1.0, backlog begins to contract, or adjusted operating margin finishes below the 19.1% guidance floor. Q2 Defense Electronics sales declined 3%, and ground-defense revenue declined 8%, illustrating that favorable consolidated results can coexist with end-market and program-timing weakness. Base CaseCentral scenario $806.5060% Matches the consensus meanThe modal case assumes performance remains within the August 2026 guidance ranges: adjusted sales of USD 3.768-3.813 billion, adjusted operating margin of 19.1%-19.3%, adjusted diluted EPS of USD 15.10-15.40 and free cash flow of USD 585-605 million. It also assumes backlog provides forward visibility while softer individual markets remain manageable. Bull CaseUpside scenario $870.0025% The upside case requires sustained orders above sales, conversion of the USD 4.5 billion backlog, achievement or further improvement of raised 2026 guidance, and continued margin expansion across the portfolio. Additional support would come from successful execution of the expanded USD 260 million 2026 repurchase program. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |