CuriosityStream Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryMovies & Entertainment Beta (adjusted)1.51 Intrinsic Value $2.67median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $2.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $173.9M Enterprise Value $155.5M Shares Outstanding 59.3M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CuriosityStream is successfully transitioning from a pure-play subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) service to a diversified factual media company, leveraging its extensive content library for high-margin AI video model training and data licensing. With a debt-free balance sheet, positive adjusted EBITDA for five consecutive quarters, and nine consecutive quarters of positive adjusted free cash flow, the company is fundamentally de-risked. The board's decision to raise the quarterly dividend to $0.085 per share ($0.34 annualized) reflects strong confidence in its cash-generation capabilities, offering an attractive yield while the market underappreciates its AI-driven growth engine. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.00 Mean target$5.33 High · most bullish analyst$6.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.27 AI licensing deals face execution delays or regulatory hurdles, leading to a significant revenue miss. Subscription churn increases due to intense competition in the streaming landscape, forcing the company to increase marketing spend and eroding EBITDA margins. The dividend coverage tightens, forcing a potential reduction to preserve cash. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.67 CuriosityStream delivers on its FY 2026 guidance of $75M-$80M in revenue and $16M-$20M in Adjusted EBITDA. Subscription revenue remains stable with single-digit growth, while licensing continues to expand as a reliable, albeit lumpy, revenue stream. The company maintains its $0.34 annualized dividend, supported entirely by organic operating cash flow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.00 AI licensing demand accelerates rapidly, surpassing subscription revenue as the primary growth engine. CuriosityStream secures multiple multi-million dollar long-term agreements with major technology companies for video model training, driving gross margins toward 65% and Adjusted EBITDA to the high end of the $16M-$20M guidance. Capital returns increase via aggressive share buybacks and further dividend hikes. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |