Cummins Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cummins Inc

CMINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.17

Intrinsic Value $443.38median of 6 methods · middle span $294-$800based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $517.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $71.2B

Enterprise Value $75.7B

Shares Outstanding 138.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cummins entered the second half of 2026 with record second-quarter revenue, raised full-year revenue and EBITDA-margin guidance, improving North American truck demand and strong data-center power-generation demand. Power Systems is the clearest incremental driver, while the new battery-storage project broadens the data-center offering. Offsetting factors include year-over-year margin compression in Engine, Components and Distribution, continued Accelera losses, regulatory uncertainty and execution risk around the phased Model Year 2027 engine launches.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$530.00

Mean target$757.35

High · most bullish analyst$894.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$530.0020%

Revenue growth falls below the current 10% guidance floor or the EBITDA-margin outlook falls below 18.0%. Data-center project timing slows, truck demand weakens, tariffs or supply costs pressure margins, Accelera losses worsen, or final emissions rules disrupt the announced Model Year 2027 launch plan.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$757.3556%

Matches the consensus mean

Cummins delivers within its raised 2026 revenue-growth and EBITDA-margin ranges. Power Systems remains the strongest contributor, truck demand improves without an unsustainable pre-buy, and Accelera losses trend lower. Engine-platform launches proceed on the announced phased schedule.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$894.0024%

Revenue reaches the upper end of the 10%-13% full-year growth outlook and EBITDA margin reaches the upper end of 18.0%-18.5%. Robust data-center demand sustains Power Systems growth, including broader adoption of natural-gas generation, battery storage and integrated microgrids. Improving truck markets and China demand add diversification, while disciplined capacity investment supports the higher long-term targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Cummins raised its 2026 revenue-growth outlook to 10%-13% and set EBITDA-margin guidance at 18.0%-18.5%.
Power Systems second-quarter sales increased 19% and segment EBITDA margin reached 24.5%, driven primarily by power-generation demand.
The company increased its quarterly dividend to $2.20 per share, marking 17 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Cummins raised its 2030 financial targets and announced further capacity and product investments in mining and power generation.
The August 2026 battery-storage selection expands Cummins' addressable data-center offering beyond diesel and natural-gas generation.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter EBITDA margins declined year over year in Engine, Components and Distribution despite sales growth, partly because of higher incentive compensation.
Accelera generated a $69 million second-quarter EBITDA loss and remains dependent on disciplined investment pacing and market adoption.
The Model Year 2027 launch plan relies on flexibilities in a proposed EPA rule and may change if the final rule differs materially.
Cummins identifies tariffs, trade disruption, emissions regulation, commodity costs, supply constraints, cyclicality and technology transition as material uncertainties.
Rapid Power Systems expansion increases exposure to data-center project timing, capacity execution and the durability of AI-related infrastructure demand.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.