CSX Corporation Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryRail Transportation Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $38.08median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$72based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $46.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $86.2B Enterprise Value $102.4B Shares Outstanding 1.9B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CSX entered the second half of 2026 with strengthening operating momentum: second-quarter volume increased 6%, including 9% intermodal growth, while the latest weekly service measures showed 17.8 mph train velocity and 11.0 hours of terminal dwell. Its locomotive-modernization program should support longer-term reliability and fuel efficiency. However, the August 28 issuer-reported share price of $51.28 already discounts a meaningful portion of this improvement, industrial demand has recently been uneven, and prospective rail-industry consolidation introduces competitive uncertainty. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.00 Mean target$53.14 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.0023% Industrial demand weakens, second-quarter volume momentum fades, or network fluidity deteriorates materially. Competitive disruption associated with proposed rail consolidation could further pressure expectations and produce valuation contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $53.1456% Matches the consensus meanVolume growth moderates after the strong second quarter while service remains broadly stable and fleet modernization supports incremental efficiency. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.0021% Broad-based volume growth persists, intermodal remains strong, service execution improves from current levels, and new and modernized locomotives enhance reliability and efficiency. Sustained operating momentum and improved investor confidence support the upper scenario. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |