CSW Industrials Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.89 Intrinsic Value $294.53median of 6 methods · middle span $232-$358based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $292.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.8B Enterprise Value $5.6B Shares Outstanding 16.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CSW Industrials has successfully transitioned from a niche manufacturer into a high-quality industrial compounder with a dominant position in the HVAC/R and plumbing aftermarket. By deploying approximately $1 billion into highly synergistic acquisitions (such as MARS Parts and Aspen Manufacturing), the company has significantly expanded its exposure to resilient, recurring maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) cycles. While GAAP earnings are temporarily pressured by acquisition-related amortization, integration costs, and higher interest expenses, the underlying business model remains highly cash-generative. As integration synergies are realized and leverage is reduced, CSW is well-positioned to deliver substantial long-term shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$320.00 Mean target$351.86 High · most bullish analyst$400.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $320.0015% Integration of MARS and Aspen faces operational friction, leading to prolonged margin dilution. Persistent high interest rates and inflation continue to suppress residential HVAC replacement and repair volumes, while tariff-driven material costs compress gross margins below historical baselines. Base CaseCentral scenario $351.8660% Matches the consensus meanSynergies from recent acquisitions track on schedule, offsetting modest gross margin pressure from inflation and tariffs. Contractor Solutions and Specialized Reliability Solutions segments achieve steady revenue and EBITDA margin expansion in fiscal 2027. Free cash flow remains robust, supporting steady debt paydown and the newly increased quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share. Bull CaseUpside scenario $400.0025% Residential HVAC replacement demand recovers faster than expected over the next 12-24 months, driving high organic volume growth. Integration of MARS Parts and Aspen Manufacturing beats synergy timelines, expanding Contractor Solutions EBITDA margins well into the mid-30% range. Rapid deleveraging allows for early resumption of aggressive share buybacks under the expanded $250 million authorization. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |