Crown Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPackaging & Containers Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $114.80median of 6 methods · middle span $89-$237based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $106.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.5B Enterprise Value $16.9B Shares Outstanding 110.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Crown entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: second-quarter global beverage can volumes increased 5%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 16%, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.30-$8.50 while retaining an adjusted free-cash-flow outlook of at least $900 million. Softer Latin American demand, subdued industrial activity affecting Transit Packaging, inflationary costs and execution requirements across several capacity projects temper the strong beverage-can outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$121.00 Mean target$136.57 High · most bullish analyst$155.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $121.0019% Beverage-can volume growth weakens, inflationary input costs prove difficult to recover, Transit Packaging remains constrained by subdued industrial production, or geopolitical and supply-chain disruption impairs operations. These conditions could push adjusted EPS or free cash flow below management's revised 2026 outlook. Base CaseCentral scenario $136.5758% Matches the consensus meanCrown delivers within its revised 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $8.30-$8.50 and generates at least $900 million of adjusted free cash flow. Beverage-can growth offsets softer Latin American demand, inflationary pressure and a tepid industrial environment. Bull CaseUpside scenario $155.0023% Global beverage-can demand remains strong, expansion projects in Brazil, Greece and Spain progress as planned, and preparation for the Northern India facility supports the longer-term growth runway. Continued manufacturing execution and cash generation could produce results near or above the upper end of the revised 2026 guidance range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |