CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySystems Software Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $141.83median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Apr 2026 Market Price $266.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $272.5B Enterprise Value $268.7B Shares Outstanding 1B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date1 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CrowdStrike's operating momentum strengthened materially in fiscal Q2 2027: ending ARR reached $5.84 billion, net new ARR reached a record $332.8 million, and Falcon Flex-associated ending ARR exceeded $2.29 billion. Management consequently raised its FY27 net-new-ARR growth outlook to 34% at the midpoint. These results support a durable platform-consolidation thesis, but the investment case remains sensitive to sustained high growth, Falcon Flex execution, product reliability, and competitive execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$103.25 Mean target$199.55 High · most bullish analyst$256.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $103.2518% Ending ARR misses the FY27 guidance floor, quarterly net new ARR falls materially below the fiscal Q2 record, or Falcon Flex growth decelerates sharply. Product-reliability, litigation, integration, or competitive pressures then weaken retention and constrain the platform-consolidation thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $199.5558% Matches the consensus meanCrowdStrike delivers within its $6.603-$6.6119 billion FY27 ending-ARR guidance, with net new ARR moderating from the record fiscal Q2 level but remaining healthy. Falcon Flex and module expansion sustain platform growth while competitive and execution pressures limit further upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $256.0024% CrowdStrike exceeds the top of its FY27 ending-ARR guidance, Falcon Flex remains a major consolidation engine, and broad module adoption converts AI-security demand into sustained ARR growth. Continued operating leverage and successful expansion across cloud, identity, SIEM, and AI security support a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |