CrossAmerica Partners LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil and Gas Storage and Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.53 Intrinsic Value $18.30median of 5 methods · middle span $16-$27based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.52Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $821.5M Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 38.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The partnership benefits from a stable, real-estate-backed wholesale fuel distribution model and a high distribution yield of approximately 9.5%. However, these positive attributes are offset by high leverage, a tight distribution coverage ratio, and long-term structural headwinds related to the transition to electric vehicles and declining internal combustion engine fuel volumes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Volatile fuel margins and accelerating declines in retail fuel volumes pressure cash flows. The distribution coverage ratio falls below 1.0x, forcing a distribution cut. High leverage limits financial flexibility, leading to a downward re-rating of the units. Base CaseCentral scenario The partnership successfully maintains its quarterly distribution of $0.5250 per unit, supported by stable rental income from its real estate portfolio and steady wholesale fuel margins. Leverage remains managed around 3.5x to 3.8x, and the distribution coverage ratio hovers slightly above 1.0x. Bull CaseUpside scenario CrossAmerica Partners offers a strong income play with a high distribution yield (exceeding 9.5%). The partnership has demonstrated robust unit economics, with distributable cash flows rising significantly in recent quarters (e.g., Q1 DCF up 136% YoY to $21.5 million). Additionally, its strategic optimization of retail stations and long-term lease extensions (such as extending its unitary leases with Getty Realty to 2037) provide stable, predictable cash flows to support distributions. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |