CRH Plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CRH Plc

CRHNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryConstruction Materials

Beta (adjusted)1.22

Intrinsic Value $90.20median of 6 methods · middle span $82-$124based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $81.70Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $54.4B

Enterprise Value $69.1B

Shares Outstanding 667.4M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CRH entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 6%, Adjusted EBITDA increased 7%, diluted EPS increased 14%, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance. The five-year framework targets 7%-9% average annual revenue growth, a 22%-24% Adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030 and greater than 100% average annual Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion. These strengths are balanced by the execution, approval and financing considerations surrounding the proposed $8.5 billion Arcosa acquisition and by macroeconomic, geopolitical and inflation uncertainty.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$105.00

Mean target$137.97

High · most bullish analyst$165.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$105.0020%

Underlying demand weakens, inflationary costs outpace commercial actions, or the Arcosa transaction is terminated or proves difficult to integrate, causing CRH to fall below the lower bounds of its FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and diluted-EPS guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$137.9755%

Matches the consensus mean

CRH delivers within its FY 2026 guidance of $3.9bn-$4.1bn net income, $8.1bn-$8.5bn Adjusted EBITDA and $5.60-$6.05 diluted EPS, while progressing toward its five-year growth targets. The Arcosa transaction remains an important execution variable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$165.0025%

CRH sustains favorable demand, pricing and margin execution, completes and successfully integrates Arcosa, and delivers toward the upper end of its 7%-9% average annual revenue-growth objective while maintaining Adjusted EBITDA margins near or above the 22%-24% 2030 target range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS increased 6%, 7% and 14%, respectively, while both net-income and Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded year over year.
CRH's 2026-2030 targets call for 7%-9% average annual revenue growth, a 22%-24% Adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030 and greater than 100% average annual Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion.
CRH deployed $1.4bn into 17 acquisitions during the first half of 2026 and agreed to acquire Arcosa for $8.5bn, reinforcing its North American aggregates and critical-infrastructure position if completed successfully.

Key Investment Risks

The $8.5bn Arcosa transaction remained subject to Arcosa shareholder approval, regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions in CRH's latest reported results.
Management explicitly identified geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty even while reaffirming its positive outlook.
CRH reported that its second-quarter performance occurred against an inflationary cost backdrop, making continued pricing and productivity execution important.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.