Cresud ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cresud ADR

CRESYNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryAgricultural Products

Beta (adjusted)0.32

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $11.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $805.7M

Shares Outstanding 70.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Nov 2025

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cresud Inc. (NASDAQ: CRESY) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a premier play on South American agribusiness and prime Argentine urban real estate. The company's unique business model combines active farming operations, cyclical land development (acquiring, upgrading, and selling farmland), and a controlling stake in IRSA, Argentina's leading commercial real estate operator. Recent financial results demonstrate a powerful turnaround, with 9M FY2026 net income surging to ARS 231,308 million, driven by robust real estate fair value gains and operational scale. Despite near-term margin pressures from global commodity price volatility and elevated input costs, Cresud's strategic expansion of its planted area to 311,000 hectares and active capital recycling position it for long-term capital appreciation. Furthermore, substantial dividend distributions and active insider buying signal strong alignment with minority shareholders.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.01

Mean target$15.51

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case assumes severe weather disruptions (e.g., extreme drought) across South America, leading to poor crop yields. Simultaneously, a prolonged global commodity downturn and soaring fertilizer costs compress agribusiness margins. In Argentina, macroeconomic instability, high inflation, or sudden regulatory shifts in FX controls and export taxes pressure IRSA's commercial operations and increase the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Under the base case, Cresud successfully executes its 2026 agricultural campaign, leveraging its expanded planted area of 311,000 hectares. Favorable weather conditions in Argentina offset localized challenges in BrasilAgro's operating regions. The urban real estate portfolio under IRSA continues to deliver high occupancy rates (approaching 100% in AAA offices) and stable rental income, supporting consolidated cash flows. Farmland sales resume at attractive valuations as regional land prices recover. The company maintains its disciplined capital allocation, balancing debt reduction with consistent dividend payouts.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Commodity prices and foreign exchange rates stabilize, and Argentina's macroeconomic risk premium decreases, leading to a re-rating of asset-level valuations and a narrowing of the historical discount to NAV.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Diversified Asset Base: Unique exposure to both high-growth South American agribusiness and premium urban real estate through IRSA.
Proven Land Banking Strategy: Long track record of generating superior returns by acquiring underutilized land, transforming it into highly productive farms, and selling at a premium.
Strong Insider Alignment: Significant insider ownership (~42.5%) and recent open-market share purchases by senior directors signal deep confidence in the company's valuation.
Attractive Shareholder Returns: History of substantial dividend distributions, supported by robust cash generation from urban properties.

Key Investment Risks

Macroeconomic and Political Volatility: High exposure to Argentina's economic cycles, inflation, currency devaluation, and shifting regulatory frameworks.
Commodity Price and Input Cost Fluctuations: Vulnerability to global grain price cycles and spikes in imported fertilizer or fuel costs.
Weather and Climate Risks: Agricultural yields are highly dependent on regional weather patterns, with risks of droughts or floods affecting output.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A severe, multi-season drought across Argentina and Brazil that decimates crop yields.
Re-imposition of highly restrictive currency controls or sharp increases in agricultural export taxes by the Argentine government.
A major downturn in the Argentine commercial real estate market leading to a collapse in IRSA's property valuations and rental income.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.