Crescent Capital BDC Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Crescent Capital BDC Inc

CCAPNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.72

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $9.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $337.9M

Enterprise Value $1.2B

Shares Outstanding 36.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. (CCAP) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company has proactively addressed earnings durability by implementing a strategic fee reduction (lowering its base management fee from 1.25% to 1.00% and its incentive fee from 17.5% to 15.0% effective April 1, 2026). While its portfolio remains highly diversified and heavily weighted toward defensive first-lien senior secured loans, CCAP faces headwinds from a declining Net Asset Value (NAV) per share (which fell to $18.27 in Q1 2026 from $19.10 at year-end 2025) and a modest rise in non-accrual companies. The stock trades at a significant discount to NAV, reflecting these credit concerns and the impact of lower benchmark interest rates on its floating-rate portfolio. A Hold recommendation is warranted as the market digests the impact of the new fee structure and the stabilization of its credit metrics.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$11.00

Mean target$12.79

High · most bullish analyst$14.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

In the bear case, macroeconomic headwinds pressure middle-market borrowers, causing non-accruals to rise further and leading to additional realized and unrealized losses. NAV per share continues its downward trajectory below $17.50. Lower benchmark rates compress interest margins more severely than anticipated, testing dividend coverage and potentially forcing a reduction in total distributions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

In the base case, CCAP successfully stabilizes its NAV around the $18.00–$18.50 range as credit metrics normalize. The reduced fee structure supports net investment income (NII) durability, allowing the company to comfortably cover its newly adjusted regular base dividend of $0.34 per share alongside its scheduled special dividends of $0.09 per share. Moderate deployment activity offsets repayments, maintaining a stable portfolio size of approximately $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP) presents a compelling tactical investment opportunity due to its deep valuation discount, trading at a Price-to-NAV of approximately 0.60x to 0.66x (a ~34% to 40% discount to NAV) which is significantly below the BDC sector average of 0.74x. This deep discount is paired with a high dividend yield of over 13% supported by strong base dividend coverage (107% in recent quarters). Furthermore, CCAP has implemented a highly competitive fee structure, reducing its base management fee from 1.25% to 1.00% and its incentive fee from 17.5% to 15.0% effective Q2 2026, aligning its cost structure with top-tier BDCs and enhancing long-term earnings power and dividend sustainability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proactive fee structure reduction (base fee cut to 1.00% and incentive fee to 15.0%) enhances alignment with shareholders and supports earnings durability.
High portfolio diversification with a strong defensive focus, primarily consisting of first-lien senior secured floating-rate loans.
Attractive total distribution profile, supported by a regular base dividend and a series of declared special dividends.
Strong institutional backing and origination capabilities from Crescent Capital Group, which manages approximately $50 billion in assets.

Key Investment Risks

Declining Net Asset Value (NAV) per share, which fell from $19.10 to $18.27 during the first quarter of 2026.
Rising credit pressure within the middle-market segment, as evidenced by a modest increase in non-accrual portfolio companies.
Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, where declining benchmark rates compress yields on floating-rate debt investments.
High leverage, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 1.32x, which sits at the upper end of historical target ranges.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A rapid increase in non-accrual investments exceeding 10% of the total portfolio at fair value.
A drop in NAV per share below $17.00, indicating severe underlying asset impairment.
Failure of Net Investment Income (NII) to cover the regular base dividend of $0.34 per share.
A significant downgrade in credit ratings or a sharp increase in the weighted average cost of debt above 6.50%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.