Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

CRDONASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)2.49

Intrinsic Value $220.21median of 6 methods · middle span $64-$261based on filings through 1 Aug 2026

Market Price $210.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $39.5B

Shares Outstanding 198M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date30 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Credo enters its September 1 earnings event with exceptional operating momentum: FY2026 revenue more than tripled to $1.335 billion, Q4 revenue reached $437.0 million, and Q4 GAAP gross margin was 68.2%. The next growth vector is a broader, vertically integrated optical platform following the DustPhotonics acquisition, with management targeting more than $500 million of FY2027 optical revenue. ZeroFlap optics and OmniConnect further expand Credo beyond its core AEC and IC franchises.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$184.00

Mean target$281.13

High · most bullish analyst$350.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Q1 FY2027 revenue falls below $465 million or GAAP gross margin falls below 66.9%, indicating weaker demand, unfavorable mix, or execution pressure. Failure to exceed $500 million of FY2027 optical revenue would weaken the strategic case for the DustPhotonics acquisition and reduce confidence that new optical products can diversify growth beyond established AEC and IC franchises.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Q1 FY2027 revenue lands within the $465 million to $475 million guidance range, gross margin remains within the 66.9% to 68.9% GAAP range, and DustPhotonics integration supports a credible path toward more than $500 million of FY2027 optical revenue.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Revenue reaches or exceeds the $475 million upper end of Q1 FY2027 guidance, gross margin remains near or above the guided upper end, and the integrated optical portfolio exceeds the stated $500 million FY2027 revenue objective. Successful ZeroFlap adoption and OmniConnect ecosystem development would demonstrate that Credo can extend its AI-connectivity position across electrical, optical, and memory interconnects.

Key Investment Merits

FY2026 revenue reached $1.335 billion, more than tripling year over year, while Q4 GAAP operating income reached $155.8 million on $437.0 million of revenue.
The completed DustPhotonics acquisition adds silicon-photonics technology and vertically integrates Credo across SerDes, DSP, silicon photonics, and system integration.
Commercial availability of 800G ZeroFlap optical transceivers and the planned open OmniConnect ecosystem broaden Credo's opportunity across AI scale-out, scale-up, and memory interconnects.

Key Investment Risks

DustPhotonics integration entails operational, technology, competitive, and milestone-execution risks, including potential contingent share consideration.
The investment case depends on sustaining unusually high growth and gross margins as revenue scales and the product mix expands into optical systems.
The optical-revenue objective and OmniConnect ecosystem plans are forward-looking and depend on customer adoption, product execution, interoperability, and competitive outcomes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.