Crane NXT Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Crane NXT Co

CXTNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.06

Intrinsic Value $49.30median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$61based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $48.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.8B

Enterprise Value $3.8B

Shares Outstanding 58.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Crane NXT is a premier industrial technology company positioned to capture high-margin growth across secure transactions, product authentication, and supply chain traceability. The company's investment thesis is anchored by its highly resilient, high-barrier-to-entry Crane Currency business, which is entering a multi-year tailwind driven by the Federal Reserve's banknote redesign cycle (starting with the new $10 bill in 2026). Furthermore, the strategic acquisitions of OpSec Security, De La Rue Authentication, and most recently Antares Vision Group (completed ahead of schedule in April 2026) transform Crane NXT into a comprehensive physical-plus-digital authentication powerhouse. While integration execution and temporary margin dilution from Antares present near-term watch items, disciplined cost management, robust backlog visibility (over 90% of 2026 sales in backlog), and strong free cash flow conversion support a compelling valuation re-rating opportunity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$56.00

Mean target$70.17

High · most bullish analyst$85.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$56.00

Macroeconomic headwinds and persistent high interest rates depress corporate spending, leading to prolonged softness in CPI hardware sales and slower adoption of commercial brand protection solutions. Integration of Antares Vision faces operational friction, resulting in prolonged margin dilution and delayed synergy capture. Additionally, any delay in the U.S. currency redesign timeline pushes out expected high-margin revenue streams.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$70.17

Matches the consensus mean

Crane NXT successfully delivers on its updated 2026 guidance, achieving total sales growth of 15% to 17% (boosted by a $200M to $210M nine-month contribution from Antares Vision) and maintaining adjusted EPS of $4.10 to $4.40. Crane Currency grows in the high-single-digits supported by the 2026 Federal Reserve print order, while Antares integration proceeds smoothly, offsetting incremental interest expenses through core productivity initiatives and CBS (Crane Business System) execution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$85.00

The Federal Reserve's banknote redesign cycle accelerates rapidly, driving higher-than-expected demand for advanced micro-optic security features. Concurrently, the integration of Antares Vision Group progresses ahead of schedule, capturing significant cross-selling synergies in pharmaceutical and food traceability, which drives DTT margins to the mid-20s faster than anticipated. CPI hardware sales recover strongly as global operators upgrade payment systems to accept the newly designed banknotes.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

High-barrier-to-entry currency business with multi-year visibility and strong government relationships.
Significant growth tailwinds from the upcoming U.S. banknote redesign cycle starting in 2026.
Expanded addressable market and technological capabilities through the strategic acquisition of Antares Vision Group.
Strong cash generation profile with a targeted free cash flow conversion ratio of 90% to 110%.

Key Investment Risks

Integration risk and short-term margin dilution associated with the Antares Vision acquisition.
Cyclical softness in Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) hardware sales due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Elevated leverage and increased interest expenses from recent debt-financed M&A activity.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material delay or cancellation of the Federal Reserve's $10 banknote redesign program.
Failure to improve Antares Vision's operating margins toward the low-20s percent range over the next 12-18 months.
A significant deterioration in free cash flow conversion preventing rapid deleveraging of the balance sheet.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.