Crane Co Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $180.09median of 6 methods · middle span $155-$252based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $206.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.9B Enterprise Value $12.7B Shares Outstanding 58.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Crane entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter sales increased 25.6%, core sales rose 5.2%, adjusted EPS increased 18%, Aerospace & Advanced Technologies delivered 13.3% core growth and record backlog, and recent acquisitions were performing ahead of expectations. Management consequently raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.85-$7.05. The counterweight is Process Flow Technologies, where core sales declined 1.4%, together with integration and demand risks. A Hold is appropriate because the primary-source operating evidence is favorable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$192.00 Mean target$238.00 High · most bullish analyst$253.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $192.0020% Process Flow Technologies demand weakens beyond the second-quarter contraction, aerospace backlog growth slows, or integration of the four recent acquisitions fails to deliver the expected growth and margin improvement. A reduction below the current $6.85 adjusted-EPS guidance floor would materially weaken the thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $238.0050% Matches the consensus meanCore sales remain within management's 5%-6% FY2026 expectation, Aerospace & Advanced Technologies remains the principal growth engine, acquisition execution stays ahead of plan, and Process Flow Technologies remains broadly stable despite modest core contraction. The case assumes FY2026 adjusted EPS remains within the stated $6.85-$7.05 range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $253.0030% Aerospace & Advanced Technologies sustains double-digit core growth, its record backlog converts on schedule, and the Druck, Panametrics, Reuter-Stokes and optek-Danulat acquisitions continue to outperform management's initial expectations. These conditions could support results toward or above the upper end of current adjusted EPS guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |