CRA International Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryConsulting Services Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $148.63median of 5 methods · middle span $131-$161based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $175.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1.3B Shares Outstanding 6.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CRA International (Charles River Associates) continues to demonstrate robust top-line momentum, achieving record quarterly revenue of $201.0 million in Q1 2026, driven by strong demand across its core Antitrust & Competition Economics, Energy, and Life Sciences practices. However, profitability is facing significant headwinds due to a sharp rise in non-cash forgivable loan amortization (up 53% YoY to $13.8 million in Q1 2026), which has compressed margins and led to an EPS miss ($1.99 vs. $2.06 forecast). While the demand environment remains highly supportive, particularly with AI-driven opportunities in the Energy practice, the near-term margin pressure and negative operating cash flow warrant a cautious Hold stance until cost structures stabilize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$245.00 Mean target$250.50 High · most bullish analyst$256.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Continued escalation of forgivable loan amortization and talent acquisition costs further depresses operating margins. A slowdown in M&A activity or corporate litigation budgets reduces billable hours and utilization rates, leading to negative earnings surprises. Base CaseCentral scenario CRAI successfully delivers on its FY 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $781.5 million. Margins remain slightly pressured in the near term by talent acquisition costs but gradually recover toward historical averages as newly hired senior staff ramp up productivity. Bull CaseUpside scenario Stronger-than-expected demand in legal, regulatory, and AI-driven energy consulting accelerates top-line growth, while forgivable loan amortization expenses normalize faster than anticipated, leading to rapid margin expansion and aggressive share buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |