CPS Technologies Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronic Equipment, Instruments & Components Beta (adjusted)1.65 Intrinsic Value $0.34median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 28 Mar 2026 Market Price $3.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 91% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-91%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $73M Enterprise Value $67.3M Shares Outstanding 19.3M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CPS Technologies Corp. (CPSH) is a specialized provider of advanced metal matrix composites (MMCs) that solve critical thermal management and ballistic challenges in high-growth sectors like aerospace, defense, and electric vehicles. While the company achieved a strong return to profitability in FY2025 with record revenues of $32.6M, Q1 2026 results highlighted near-term operational headwinds. Revenue declined to $7.0M due to order timing, and gross margins compressed sharply to 8.6% due to fixed-cost under-absorption and inventory build-up. Despite these short-term challenges, the company's long-term outlook remains supported by a robust $26M backlog, a newly secured $4M hermetic packaging contract, and the reauthorization of SBIR/STTR programs through 2031. The recent $9.6M registered direct offering at $8.00 per share strengthens the balance sheet to fund its upcoming facility relocation, but introduces near-term dilution. A Hold rating is recommended as the market digests the Q1 earnings miss and monitors the execution of the facility move in late 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.50 Mean target$5.50 High · most bullish analyst$5.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.7120% The facility relocation suffers from prolonged delays and cost overruns, disrupting production schedules and damaging customer relationships. High customer concentration (top three customers at 64% of revenue) leads to severe top-line volatility if a major client delays orders. Persistent wage inflation and rising gold prices continue to compress unit margins, keeping operating results near breakeven. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.0055% CPSH successfully executes its manufacturing facility relocation in late 2026 with minimal operational disruption. Revenue growth recovers in the second half of 2026 as delayed orders ship and the $4M hermetic packaging contract ramps up. Gross margins stabilize in the 14%-16% range as fixed-cost absorption improves, supported by steady demand from core industrial and defense customers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.4325% Accelerated adoption of HybridTech Armor on U.S. Navy surface vessels and successful lightweighting of the Marine Corps Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV) drive defense segment revenues. Rapid expansion in the semiconductor and EV markets leads to high-volume orders for AlSiC baseplates, maximizing capacity utilization at the new manufacturing facility and expanding gross margins toward historical highs of >20%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |