CPI Card Group Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $20.12median of 4 methods · middle span $14-$26based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $285.6M Enterprise Value $526.4M Shares Outstanding 11.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Jun 2017 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) is a leading payments technology company that sits in the middle of the payment card supply chain, providing physical and digital payment solutions. The company's growth is driven by its proprietary technology platform, deep relationships across the U.S. payments ecosystem, and strategic acquisitions like Arroweye. Despite near-term margin pressure from integration costs and tariff expenses, CPI's strong revenue growth in Secure Card Solutions and its expanding Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) instant issuance footprint position it for long-term value creation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$27.50 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0020% Persistent integration challenges with Arroweye and prolonged weakness in the Prepaid Solutions segment weigh on profitability. Continued tariff expenses and higher depreciation keep gross margins compressed, while high debt leverage increases valuation volatility and limits capital allocation flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $27.5050% Matches the consensus meanCPI Card Group successfully delivers on its full-year 2026 outlook of high single-digit revenue growth and low-to-mid single-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth. The Secure Card Solutions segment continues to anchor performance, offsetting temporary lumpy declines in Prepaid Solutions. Net leverage remains stable within the target range of 2.5x to 3.0x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.3030% Accelerated integration of Arroweye drives higher-than-expected synergies, while the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) instant issuance platform scales rapidly across community banks and credit unions. Strong demand for contactless metal cards and eco-friendly banking solutions expands gross margins back toward historical averages, leading to significant earnings outperformance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |