Coursera Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryEducation & Training Services Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $14.63median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 188% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+188%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $583M Shares Outstanding 286.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Coursera is navigating a major transition following its completed all-stock merger with Udemy on May 11, 2026. While the combined entity boasts a massive global scale of 290 million learners and $1.5 billion in pro forma revenue, near-term performance is pressured by enterprise segment weakness and integration execution risks. A massive $500 million share buyback program announced in May 2026 provides downside support, but investors remain cautious as the company works to realize its targeted $115 million in cost synergies and prove its AI-driven upskilling growth narrative. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.50 Mean target$8.17 High · most bullish analyst$10.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.5015% Severe integration friction between Coursera's structured university model and Udemy's open marketplace leads to customer churn and revenue dis-synergies. Generative AI tools disrupt the demand for standard skill-based courses, accelerating enterprise seat losses. EBITDA margins contract due to heavy product and sales investments, pushing the stock down toward its cash-backed floor. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.1750% Matches the consensus meanCoursera slowly integrates Udemy's marketplace model with its university-accredited platform, achieving steady but gradual margin expansion toward its 9% standalone adjusted EBITDA target. Enterprise demand remains mixed, with net retention rates stabilizing around 90%. The stock trades in line with historical multiples, supported by the share buyback program and robust consumer segment growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.0035% Successful integration of Udemy drives rapid realization of the $115 million run-rate cost synergies, significantly expanding adjusted EBITDA margins. The combined platform accelerates AI-native product innovations (such as personalized coaching and micro-credentials), capturing a dominant share of the global corporate upskilling market. Aggressive execution of the $500 million share buyback program rapidly reduces share count, driving a sharp upward re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |