Coupang Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryBroadline Retail Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $29.62median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $13.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 115% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+115%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $24.8B Enterprise Value $19.3B Shares Outstanding 1.8B diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Coupang's Q2 2026 results present a balanced but execution-sensitive setup. Constant-currency revenue grew 10%, Product Commerce active customers increased 3%, and constant-currency revenue per active customer increased 5%. Developing Offerings delivered 24% constant-currency revenue growth and a smaller adjusted EBITDA loss than a year earlier. Offsetting these positives, reported revenue growth was only 4%, consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 1.8%, Product Commerce adjusted EBITDA declined sharply, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow fell to $105 million, and Korean administrative fines materially affected reported losses. A neutral stance is appropriate until customer recovery and constant-currency growth translate into sustained margin and cash-flow improvement. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$23.82 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.0023% Customer recovery stalls, Product Commerce active-customer growth drops below the Q2 rate, and weak capacity utilization or elevated marketing costs keep margins compressed. Further regulatory or data-incident consequences, combined with continued Developing Offerings losses, delay cash-flow normalization. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.8258% Matches the consensus meanConstant-currency growth remains positive but moderates near management's Q3 expectation of 8% to 9%. Core engagement remains stable, Developing Offerings losses improve unevenly, and margins recover only gradually after near-term contraction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0019% Customer engagement strengthens beyond the Q2 baseline, Product Commerce active-customer and per-customer growth accelerate, and Developing Offerings sustains strong constant-currency growth while losses continue to narrow. Better capacity utilization and lower temporary recovery costs then permit a meaningful profitability rebound. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |