Coty Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryHousehold & Personal Products Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $8.93median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $2.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 237% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+237%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $5.2B Shares Outstanding 877.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Feb 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Coty Inc. is navigating a complex operational turnaround under its newly implemented 'Coty.Curated' strategic framework, led by Interim CEO Markus Strobel. While the company possesses high-value prestige fragrance assets (such as Burberry and Hugo Boss) and has successfully reduced its leverage to 3.4x following the divestiture of its remaining Wella stake, it faces severe headwinds. These include a 7% decline in Q3 FY26 like-for-like sales, a massive $362.8 million non-cash impairment in its Consumer Beauty division, the loss of the lucrative Gucci beauty license to Kering, and an active securities class action lawsuit. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted until the 'Coty.Curated' framework demonstrates sustainable stabilization in mass cosmetics and consistent sell-out alignment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1.50 Mean target$3.13 High · most bullish analyst$8.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Mass cosmetics demand continues to deteriorate, and promotional intensity further compresses gross margins. The loss of the Gucci license creates a larger-than-expected revenue void, and negative outcomes from ongoing litigation or licensing disputes (e.g., David Beckham brand) restrict cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario The 'Coty.Curated' framework successfully stabilizes the Consumer Beauty segment through a 15% SKU reduction and AI-driven cost efficiencies, while the Prestige segment maintains low-single-digit growth driven by the Marc Jacobs Beauty relaunch and Burberry Goddess. Net leverage gradually trends down toward 3.0x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |