Costco Wholesale Corporation Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $793.23median of 6 methods · middle span $717-$865based on filings through 10 May 2026 Market Price $914.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $405.6B Enterprise Value $392.3B Shares Outstanding 444.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date10 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Costco's latest primary disclosures show resilient operating momentum: July adjusted comparable sales increased 6.6%, adjusted digitally-enabled comparable sales increased 18.2%, and the network reached 933 warehouses. Fiscal third-quarter net sales had increased 11.6%. Investors should focus on whether core comparable-sales growth remains comfortably above the defined 4% downside threshold and whether digital growth remains in the double digits. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$740.00 Mean target$1,077.31 High · most bullish analyst$1,315.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $740.0017% Adjusted comparable-sales growth falls to 4% or less and digitally-enabled growth drops below 10%, while tariffs, vendor pressures, wage inflation, competition, or weaker consumer spending impair momentum. That combination would challenge the present evidence of resilient demand. Base CaseCentral scenario $1,077.3158% Matches the consensus meanAdjusted comparable-sales growth remains near the latest 6.6% level, digitally-enabled growth stays in the high teens, and the warehouse network expands gradually. This would support continued operating progress without assuming an acceleration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1,315.0025% Adjusted total-company comparable-sales growth sustains at least 7%, digitally-enabled growth returns to at least 20%, and continued warehouse additions broaden the membership ecosystem. These conditions would indicate that Costco is retaining strong traffic and digital momentum despite macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |