Costar Group Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $74.60median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $27.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 169% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+169%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.2B Enterprise Value $11B Shares Outstanding 414.7M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CoStar's operating trajectory improved materially in Q2 2026: revenue increased 18% year over year to $925 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 116% to $184 million. The residential portfolio reached an important profitability inflection while the core company continued double-digit growth. The counterweights are the reduction in full-year revenue guidance, only modest sequential growth in net new bookings, execution risk around Homes.com sales-force changes, and integration risk following the $800 million cash acquisition of Zonda. The resulting stance is Hold: operating leverage is becoming visible, but sustained revenue execution and successful integration must be demonstrated before adopting a more constructive recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$37.10 High · most bullish analyst$53.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.0020% Revenue falls below the revised guidance floor as sales-force changes, Ten-X restructuring and softer marketplace demand constrain bookings; residential profitability reverses or Zonda integration costs delay the planned margin expansion. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.1056% Matches the consensus meanCoStar delivers within its revised 2026 guidance ranges, with continued double-digit revenue growth and improving adjusted EBITDA, while residential profitability and Zonda integration progress unevenly but remain constructive. Bull CaseUpside scenario $53.0024% CoStar reaches the upper ends of its revised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges, residential profitability proves durable, Homes.com monetization accelerates after sales-force optimization, and Zonda expands the new-home data and marketplace opportunity without disrupting margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |