Corteva Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Corteva Inc

CTVANYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Beta (adjusted)0.70

Intrinsic Value $60.17median of 6 methods · middle span $50-$67based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $12.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 379% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+379%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $8.4B

Enterprise Value $7.7B

Shares Outstanding 668.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Corteva enters its planned separation with positive operating momentum: first-half 2026 organic sales increased 2%, operating EBITDA increased 10%, and operating EPS increased 14%, prompting higher full-year guidance. Seed technology adoption, licensing income and productivity support the constructive case, while Crop Protection pricing pressure, softer second-quarter sales and execution risk around the October separation limit conviction.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$78.00

Mean target$92.30

High · most bullish analyst$103.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$78.0021%

Crop Protection price and volume pressure persists, adverse weather or agricultural-market conditions weaken demand, or separation conditions, costs and operational complexity delay value realization. Results fall below the lower end of operating guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$92.3056%

Matches the consensus mean

Corteva delivers within its $4.1-$4.3 billion operating EBITDA and $3.60-$3.80 operating EPS guidance ranges and completes the separation near the targeted date, but Crop Protection pricing remains a partial offset to Seed strength.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$103.0023%

Seed price and mix, licensing income, differentiated technologies and productivity actions continue to outperform, while Crop Protection demand improves and pricing stabilizes. A timely separation allows investors to value Vylor's germplasm and biotechnology portfolio and New Corteva's Crop Protection platform independently.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-half 2026 operating EBITDA increased 10% and operating EPS increased 14%, supporting an increase in full-year guidance.
Vylor is expected to begin with more than 4,000 germplasm patents, more than 2,000 biotechnology patents and leading market positions across key crops and regions.

Key Investment Risks

First-half Crop Protection organic sales decreased 1%, including a 3% price decline primarily attributed to Latin American market dynamics.
The separation remains conditional and exposes shareholders to potential delays, unexpected costs, litigation and management distraction.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.