Corpay Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Corpay Inc

CPAYNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.91

Intrinsic Value $441.11median of 6 methods · middle span $330-$915based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $389.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $25.6B

Enterprise Value $33B

Shares Outstanding 66.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Corpay entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 21%, organic revenue increased 10%, Corporate Payments organic revenue increased 16%, and adjusted EPS increased 36%. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $27.15-$27.55. These strengths are balanced by integration and funding risks, sensitivity to fuel prices, foreign exchange and interest rates, and an unresolved FTC matter for which Corpay recorded a preliminary $100 million charge.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$390.00

Mean target$450.64

High · most bullish analyst$480.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$390.0019%

Revenue or adjusted EPS falls below the low end of guidance as organic growth slows, acquisition integration or funding costs disappoint, macroeconomic assumptions turn unfavorable, or the FTC matter produces costs above the preliminary charge.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$450.6458%

Matches the consensus mean

Corpay delivers within its revised 2026 guidance, with organic growth near the second-quarter rate and continued Corporate Payments strength, while leverage and integration costs remain manageable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$480.0023%

Corpay reaches or exceeds the high end of its 2026 revenue and adjusted-EPS guidance, sustains approximately double-digit organic growth, preserves Corporate Payments' strong momentum, realizes acquisition synergies, and resolves the FTC matter without a charge above the amount already recorded.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 21% year over year and organic revenue grew 10%, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth.
Corporate Payments produced 16% organic revenue growth and represented 41% of second-quarter revenue, supporting Corpay's strategic rotation toward corporate payments and spend management.
Second-quarter adjusted EPS rose 36% to $7.00, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $27.15-$27.55.
Corpay repurchased approximately one million shares for $321 million during the second quarter.

Key Investment Risks

Corpay recorded a preliminary $100 million charge related to an expected FTC Bureau of Consumer Protection settlement, which remained subject to approval.
The outlook depends on fuel-price, fuel-spread, foreign-exchange, interest-rate, tax-rate, and diluted-share assumptions that may differ from actual conditions.
Recent acquisitions and strategic investments create execution, integration, synergy-realization, and financing risks.
Corpay identifies cybersecurity incidents, fraud, credit losses, regulatory compliance, securitization access, and international operations as material uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.