Corning Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronic Components Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $111.26median of 6 methods · middle span $47-$214based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $160.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $138.2B Enterprise Value $143.4B Shares Outstanding 882M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Corning has strong operating momentum from AI-related optical connectivity, including 32% year-over-year Optical Communications growth, 65% Enterprise Networks growth, and long-term agreements with major hyperscale and AI customers. Management's upgraded Springboard plan targets a $20 billion annualized sales run rate by year-end 2026 and materially higher run rates through 2030. The latest 20.9% core operating margin and $1.42 billion of quarterly adjusted free cash flow indicate improving operating leverage. However, the $148.98 reference share price already discounts substantial execution, while solar-ramp uncertainty, customer concentration, capacity-expansion risk, trade and currency exposure, and weak Life Sciences and Emerging Growth results create an asymmetric penalty if growth falls below guidance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$129.00 Mean target$191.40 High · most bullish analyst$226.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $129.0019% AI infrastructure orders or customer deployment schedules slow, new capacity is underutilized, and Corning misses the lower end of Q3 guidance or the $20 billion year-end run-rate objective. Persistent solar losses, continued weakness in Life Sciences and Emerging Growth, pricing pressure, trade restrictions, currency volatility, or supply-chain disruption would compound the earnings impact. Base CaseCentral scenario $191.4057% Matches the consensus meanCorning broadly meets Q3 guidance and its year-end 2026 Springboard objective, but growth moderates as capacity additions and new photonics programs ramp. Core margins remain near or above 20%, optical demand stays healthy, and solar improves without becoming a major near-term profit contributor. Bull CaseUpside scenario $226.0024% Corning exceeds its near-term outlook, reaches the $20 billion 2026 run-rate goal, and demonstrates that Meta, Amazon, NVIDIA, and other customer-backed expansions can support the higher 2028 and 2030 Springboard trajectories. Continued Enterprise Networks growth, successful photonics commercialization, sustained margins above 20%, and improving solar profitability would support a premium growth profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |