CorMedix Inc Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)1.31 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $7.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $578.3M Enterprise Value $545.1M Shares Outstanding 78.4M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CorMedix Inc. has successfully transitioned from a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm to a highly profitable commercial platform. This transformation is driven by the rapid commercial adoption of DefenCath, its first-in-class FDA-approved antimicrobial catheter lock solution, alongside the strategic acquisition of Melinta Therapeutics. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated exceptional operating leverage, with net revenue surging to $127.4 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $70.0 million. While the upcoming expiration of the TDAPA reimbursement on June 30, 2026, introduces near-term pricing variability, the long-term outlook remains highly attractive. This is supported by positive Phase III data for REZZAYO in fungal prophylaxis and a robust cash position of $178.1 million to fund future growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$15.00 High · most bullish analyst$19.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.00 The expiration of TDAPA on June 30, 2026, leads to severe price erosion and a sharper-than-expected decline in DefenCath sales during the second half of 2026. Additionally, regulatory delays push back the approval of the REZZAYO sNDA, and the TPN study faces further enrollment stalls, delaying pipeline expansion and increasing cash burn. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.00 Matches the consensus meanCorMedix achieves its raised FY 2026 guidance of $325M to $345M in net revenue and $115M to $135M in adjusted EBITDA. DefenCath sales experience moderate variability in the second half of 2026 due to the TDAPA expiration but stabilize ahead of the 2027 reimbursement transition. The REZZAYO sNDA is submitted in H2 2026 with a planned launch in 2027, while the TPN study continues slow but steady progress. Bull CaseUpside scenario $19.00 DefenCath outpatient dialysis adoption accelerates beyond expectations, and the transition to the post-TDAPA reimbursement structure in 2027 yields higher-than-anticipated net selling prices. Concurrently, the FDA rapidly approves the REZZAYO sNDA for fungal prophylaxis in BMT patients, leading to a highly successful commercial launch in 2027. Operating expenses remain tightly controlled, driving adjusted EBITDA and net income significantly above consensus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |