Core Natural Resources Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryThermal Coal Beta (adjusted)0.43 Intrinsic Value $76.11median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $87.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $4.3B Shares Outstanding 50.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Core Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CNR), formed via the transformational merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources in January 2025, represents a premier North American coal producer with world-class mining and logistics capabilities. Despite near-term macro headwinds in global energy markets, the company's low-cost asset base (including the Pennsylvania Mining Complex and Leer/Leer South mines) and robust seaborne export leverage position it to generate substantial free cash flow. Backed by a disciplined balance sheet with minimal net debt and an aggressive capital return program targeting 75% of free cash flow, CNR offers compelling value and significant cyclical upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$100.00 Mean target$106.00 High · most bullish analyst$118.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $100.00 Prolonged weakness in global energy markets, persistent low natural gas prices, and operational disruptions at major terminals or mines compress margins. Capital returns slow down as free cash flow is impacted by negative working capital timing and elevated cash costs. Base CaseCentral scenario $106.00 Matches the consensus meanSteady execution of the combined platform with metallurgical and high CV thermal segments maintaining solid margins. The company successfully captures targeted merger synergies of $125 million to $150 million, maintains its quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, and continues systematic share buybacks using its robust liquidity of $935.4 million. Bull CaseUpside scenario $118.00 Accelerated realization of merger synergies exceeding $150 million, combined with a sharp rebound in global metallurgical coal demand and rising domestic electricity requirements driven by AI data centers, drives free cash flow well above expectations. This enables accelerated share repurchases under the remaining $733.8 million authorization, driving the stock toward the high end of analyst estimates. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |