Core Molding Technologies Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryCommodity Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.63 Intrinsic Value $11.98median of 6 methods · middle span $11-$18based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $203.1M Enterprise Value $191M Shares Outstanding 8.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 May 2018 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Core Molding Technologies (CMT) is successfully transitioning from a cyclical commodity molder to a high-value engineered materials solutions provider. Despite near-term headwinds in the heavy-duty truck market, the company is demonstrating robust margin resilience, maintaining a fortress balance sheet with zero net debt, and securing major organic growth wins—most notably a transformative $150 million contract with Volvo starting in 2027. Strategic footprint optimization in Mexico and diversification into high-growth sectors like powersports and grid battery storage support a strong long-term growth trajectory. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$29.00 High · most bullish analyst$29.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.0020% The down cycle in the heavy-duty truck market is prolonged well into 2027, and elevated SG&A expenses from the Mexico expansion and executive succession persist. Operational inefficiencies during the consolidation of the Monterrey facility compress gross margins below the 17% threshold. Base CaseCentral scenario $29.0050% Matches the consensus meanThe heavy-duty truck market begins a gradual recovery in the second half of 2026. Gross margins remain stable within the guided 17-19% range, and the company successfully manages its $25 million Mexico expansion. Tooling revenues ramp up in Q4 2026, setting up steady revenue growth in 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.4530% Accelerated recovery in the Class 8 truck market combined with rapid scaling of the new Monterrey facility drives operating margins toward the high end of the 8-10% target. The $150 million Volvo contract launches seamlessly in Q1 2027, and the company exceeds its $50 million annual new business win target, driving valuation multiples upward. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |