Core & Main Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Core & Main Inc

CNMNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIndustrial Distribution

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value $62.64median of 6 methods · middle span $48-$224based on filings through 2 Aug 2026

Market Price $41.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 51% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+51%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $7.6B

Enterprise Value $9.8B

Shares Outstanding 193.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date9 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Core & Main enters its September 2026 earnings update with a resilient but mixed operating setup. Fiscal first-quarter sales were essentially flat because acquisitions offset lower volume, while gross margin, net income, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS improved. Municipal demand remained healthy, and management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance for 2%-3% sales growth and modest adjusted EBITDA-margin expansion. The balanced view reflects these execution gains against weak organic volume, higher distribution and growth-related costs, construction cyclicality, tariff exposure and acquisition-execution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$40.00

Mean target$60.40

High · most bullish analyst$75.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$40.0023%

The downside case would be indicated by results below the low end of guidance as lower volumes persist, residential or non-residential construction weakens, municipal projects or federal funding are delayed, tariffs pressure product costs, or acquisition and greenfield investments raise costs faster than gross profit. These pressures could reverse recent margin progress and reduce cash available for expansion and repurchases.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$60.4058%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Core & Main delivers within its reaffirmed fiscal 2026 ranges of $7,800-$7,900 million in net sales, $950-$980 million in adjusted EBITDA and a 12.2%-12.4% adjusted EBITDA margin. Municipal demand and margin initiatives offset subdued volume and higher operating costs, producing modest growth rather than acceleration.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$75.0019%

The upside case requires performance near the top of management's fiscal 2026 ranges: net sales approaching $7,900 million, adjusted EBITDA approaching $980 million and adjusted EBITDA margin approaching 12.4%. Healthy municipal repair-and-replace demand, infrastructure investment, continued strength in treatment-plant and smart-utility solutions, disciplined pricing and sourcing, greenfield openings and share repurchases could produce this outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal 2025 was Core & Main's sixteenth consecutive year of sales growth; annual net sales increased 2.8% to $7,647 million.
First-quarter fiscal 2026 gross margin expanded 50 basis points to 27.2%, net income increased 7.6%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 5.9% despite essentially flat sales.
Municipal demand remained healthy, treatment-plant solutions grew at a double-digit rate, smart-utility sales grew at a high-single-digit rate, and five greenfield locations opened during the first quarter.

Key Investment Risks

First-quarter fiscal 2026 sales were essentially flat, with decreased volume offset by acquisitions; pipes, valves and fittings and storm-drainage sales declined.
First-quarter SG&A increased 2.0% and rose to 15.7% of sales from 15.3%, reflecting higher distribution costs and investment in greenfields and sales initiatives.
Issuer-identified risks include construction-market cyclicality, municipal funding delays, tariffs and product-cost volatility, acquisition integration, competition, cybersecurity, indebtedness and interest-rate exposure.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.